If one narrative has emerged from the 90-day pause in “Liberation Day” tariffs while the U.S. president negotiates with other heads of state, it’s this: Donald Trump blinked.
In fact, this view was so common that the headlines were pretty much the same. The Wall Street Journal: “Why Trump Blinked on Tariffs Just Hours After They Went Into Effect.” Vox: “Why Trump blinked.” The Atlantic: “Trump Blinked.”
The titles — as you might imagine by the roster of publications that printed them — got successively shorter as the pieces got less nuanced. For Thursday morning, I’m sure HuffPost will run a piece called “Trumpblinked” where the article text is simply, “Nyah Nyah Nyah Nyah! Nyahnyahnyah! Trumpblinked!” (Whatever content creator bills for writing that one, do note that I respect your grift. No shame in the game.)
And, to be fair, Trump “blinking” is a good, if somewhat simplistic, shorthand way to understand the events of Wednesday. The stock market bounced back, most countries saw tariffs paused while new deals started to be negotiated, and it was status quo ante.
However, the key to understanding why blinking is overly simplistic is that, while most countries saw their tariffs negated for the time being, not all countries did — and, very specifically, China did not.
Both China and the United States have engaged in escalating tariffs over the past week, with Beijing raising its tariffs on U.S. goods to 84 percent while Washington reciprocated with a 125 percent tariff on Chinese goods on Wednesday.
“At some point, hopefully in the near future, China will realize the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable,” Trump said on Truth Social in a post announcing the pause.
( @realDonaldTrump – Truth Social Post )
( Donald J. Trump – Apr 09, 2025, 1:18 PM ET )Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At… pic.twitter.com/9Jikp9cqpy
— Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 TRUTH POSTS (@TruthTrumpPosts) April 9, 2025
Was Trump playing 4D chess from the very beginning?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had hinted at this in an interview with CNBC days earlier, noting that retaliatory tariffs weren’t going to work in Beijing’s favor.
“What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them,” Bessent said.
“I think you are going to see some very large countries with large trade deficits come forward very quickly,” Bessent added. “If they come to the table with solid proposals, I think we can end up with some good deals.”
In remarks from the White House shortly after the pause was announced, Bessent noted that “this was driven by the president’s strategy.”
“You might even say that he goaded China into a bad position,” Bessent said. “They responded, and they have shown themselves to the world” that they were the bad actor.
“We are willing to cooperate with our allies and with our trading partners who did not retaliate,” Bessent added.
“It wasn’t a hard message: Don’t retaliate, things will turn out well.”
NEW: Scott Bessent says Trump didn’t just raise tariffs—he set a trap, and China walked right into it.
This is what 4D chess looks like.
Markets are rebounding after President Trump slapped a 125% tariff on Chinese imports while giving a 90-day pause to other countries.
The… pic.twitter.com/M9KMreyWeG
— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) April 9, 2025
Bessent wasn’t alone. “Shark Tank” panelist and mogul Kevin O’Leary, who has supported Trump’s trade policies, said that “104 percent tariffs of China are not enough” and that he wanted “400 percent tariffs tomorrow morning.”
“I do business in China,” O’Leary said on CNN. “They don’t play by the rules. They’ve been in the [World Trade Organization] for decades, they have never abided by any of the rules they agreed to when they came in for decades.
“They cheat, they steal, they steal IP, I can’t litigate in their courts. They take product, technology, they steal it, they manufacture it, and sell it back here,” he added.
“I want [Chinese President] Xi on an airplane to Washington to level the playing field,” he continued.
“Nobody has taken on China yet, not the Europeans, no administration for decades. As someone who actually does business there, I’ve had enough. I speak for millions of Americans who have IP that have been stolen by the Chinese. I have nothing against the Chinese people … the government cheats and steals and finally, an administration — you may not like Trump, you may not like his style or his rhetoric — finally, an administration that puts up and says: ‘Enough.’”
🔥Mr. Wonderful comes out swinging on China:
It is time to squeeze Chinese heads into the wall NOW.”
— Cryptid Politics 🇺🇸🐊 (@CryptidPolitics) April 9, 2025
And it’s not just the fact that the tariffs went in on China, which proved itself to be the worst actor in the era of the global economy. Bessent warned that any nation — especially European — that decides it’s going to throw its lot in with Beijing would end up the same way.
🚨 JUST IN: Treasury Secretary Bessent just sent a STRONG warning to countries thinking about aligning with China
“You’ll be cutting your own throat.”
Keep that in mind, Europe! 😉 pic.twitter.com/6CFMjgeqDU
— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) April 9, 2025
“I can tell the rest of the world — I’m not sure whether it’s the prime minister or the economic minister in Spain made some comments this morning, ‘Oh, well, maybe we should align ourselves more with China’ — that would be cutting your own throat,” Bessent said, adding that the “U.S. tariff wall” would keep out bad actors and those who sided with them, especially in Europe.
It’s a cliché to say that Trump and his administration are playing 4D chess. It’s not a terrible one, in this case. If it looks like “Trump blinked,” that’s fine with them — so long as they get what they want, which is Beijing stuck with a pariah label on the global market.
Imagine if any president after Ike had had the guts to handle trade this way. Sure, prices would be a little higher, but there wouldn’t be as many horrible sweatshops in China or in countries economically aligned with it, and America would still be an industrial powerhouse along with a tech powerhouse.
All we needed was an American president who would stand firm for one stinking week — which is what Trump just did. This counts as 4D chess in a world where, by blinkering itself behind free-trade absolutism and accepting vague promises that this time, the Lucy in Beijing wouldn’t pull the football away from whatever Charlie Brown was in the White House, establishment Washington has proved itself impotent to handle the trade crisis with China. This is only the beginning, and that’s a very good thing.
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