Taking measure of the strengths and weaknesses on both sides.
During an Oval Office visit with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on April 7, President Donald Trump announced that talks were set between the United States and Iran. It was the first anyone had heard of a Tehran-Washington meeting. Tensions have been high between the two countries, particularly since the US chief executive has made it clear that America has no more patience with Iran trying to build a nuclear weapon and fomenting conflict in the Gulf region.
Talks With Iran Will Cover Nukes
Iran is reportedly within months, if not weeks, of producing nuclear weapons-grade fissionable material. The Biden administration did nothing to impede Tehran’s progress, and Trump is making it a priority to convince Iran of the error in its ways. To that end, at a session on Saturday, April 12, in Oman, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff will represent American interests, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will stand for Iran.
Negotiations between unfriendly nations always promise strange twists and turns. For example, according to the Daily Caller, “Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to aid President Donald Trump in securing a deal with Iran on its nuclear program, Bloomberg reported.” It was during a February phone call with Putin that Trump proposed the idea. Since then, behind-the-scenes efforts to establish the date and venue have been ongoing. A potential diplomatic issue is the difference in how the talks are characterized. During the Trump-Netanyahu press conference, the president explained:
“We’re having direct talks with Iran. And they’ve started, it’ll go on Saturday [April 12]. We have a very big meeting, and we’ll see what can happen … Very high level. We’re dealing with the Iranians. We have a very big meeting on Saturday, and we’re dealing with them directly. You know, a lot of people say, oh, maybe you’re going through surrogates, or you’re not dealing directly, you’re dealing through other countries. No, we’re dealing with them directly and maybe a deal is going to be made, that’ll be great.”
Trump described the talks as “direct”; in contrast, Iran has characterized them as “indirect.” Reuters reported: “Although Iran has rejected US President Donald Trump’s demand for direct talks, it wants to continue indirect negotiations through Oman, a longtime channel for messages between the rival states, said the official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity.” The talks will be mediated by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, and the extent of the mediation may determine how direct the talks are. Regardless of how the discussions happen, having them at all is a sea change.
The optics of having Netanyahu present when Trump made the revelation signaled the complete blessing of Israel, expanding the dimension of the negotiations. Iran’s stated purpose to acquire nuclear weapons to intimidate Israel validates Jerusalem’s stake in the outcome of the talks. Trump has been vocal about his consideration of military action against Iran if its continued proxy war against US interests doesn’t stop, especially the Houthi rebels’ attacks on commercial shipping and American warships.
Washington Wants Tehran to End Proxy Support
In addition to the US insisting Iran stop its nuclear weapons program, America’s negotiators will stress that Tehran’s support for attacks on US forces through its proxies in Iraq and Syria will not be tolerated. In response, Iran warned its Gulf neighbors that any assistance to the United States, such as overflight rights, would be met with serious consequences. However, Iranian leadership is not in a particularly strong position. The greatly reduced capability of Iran’s air defenses caused by Israeli attacks, the loss of its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the diminished power of proxies like Hezbollah, orchestrated by Israel, combine to weaken Iran’s negotiating prowess.
Other factors also make up the backdrop to the meeting. The United States has enlarged its naval presence in the region, adding another aircraft carrier task force and positioning B-2 Spirit stealth bombers at a Navy support facility in Diego Garcia, which sends a strong message that it is prepared to engage militarily. Trump expects Iran to enter good-faith discussions to stop its nuclear weapons program and abandon its attacks on US interests. His vision of peaceful coexistence in the Middle East manifested in his first term with the Abraham Accords. Talks with Iran are the first step in making it a reality.
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