South Korea is facing some serious political upheaval. This week, its Constitutional Court finally decided that President Yoon Suk Yeol should be impeached, after his failed coup last year.
In December, Yoon – leader of the right-wing People Power Party – declared martial law, banning virtually all political activity, including that of the National Assembly. This state of emergency lasted just three hours, until lawmakers managed to force their way into the parliament building and vote against the martial-law motion.
For this, Yoon is getting his comeuppance. For months now, South Korea’s capital, Seoul, has been rocked by massive street protests, both pro- and anti-Yoon. Yoon has been under arrest since January – the first sitting South Korean president to be arrested. There were a series of hearings at the Constitutional Court to decide whether Yoon should be impeached. After two preliminary hearings and 11 full sessions, the court’s eight judges unanimously decided to uphold the National Assembly’s motion to impeach him.
The court found that Yoon had no right to declare a national emergency and, therefore, martial law. His parliamentary opponents were not, as he had claimed, North Korean assets who threatened national security. In addition, Yoon failed to hold a formal meeting with his cabinet first, which South Korea’s constitution requires. It was also unconstitutional for Yoon to deploy hundreds of troops, including special forces, to stop National Assembly lawmakers from voting to lift martial law. And it was unconstitutional for Yoon to send dozens of soldiers, without a warrant, to probe the computer servers of the National Election Commission for electoral fraud.
The impeachment is amply justified, but this political turmoil comes at a time when South Korea is already encountering economic difficulties. US president Donald Trump hit South Korea with 26 per cent tariffs last week, which will surely be a huge blow to some of South Korea’s vital industries, like electronics and car manufacturing. The measures come into effect on Wednesday, but the writing has been on the wall since last year. In 2024, South Korea’s exports to the US hit a record high of $128 billion, with cars, its top-selling product, accounting for 27 per cent of the total. With this kind of exposure to American buyers, it was no wonder that, on Monday, the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index dropped 4.2 per cent in its first 15 minutes of trading, and was then briefly closed.
The tariffs will take a toll on Seoul-Washington relations. South Korea has agreements with the US in both trade and defence, but what do these count for now? In an attempt to patch things up, this week South Korean trade minister Cheong In-kyo became the fifth top South Korean trade representative to visit Washington in recent months, trying to get the Trump administration to soften its stance on trade. But Trump has chosen to open the White House only to the chairman of South Korean automotive manufacturer Hyundai Motor Group. This is unsurprising, given that Hyundai recently announced investments totalling $21 billion in making steel, cars, batteries and high-tech partnerships in the US states of Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia. Trump would no doubt like to see a lot more inward investment deals such as these.
South Korea has also been searching for stability closer to home, anxious to create a ‘predictable’ trade and investment environment in the face of Trump’s erratic tariffs. Late last month, industry and commerce ministers from South Korea, China and Japan called for negotiations on a comprehensive three-way free-trade agreement to be sped up.
Now, though, the impeachment of Yoon could complicate things. The Japanese government has already said that the removal of Yoon is ‘disappointing’. Relations between Seoul and Tokyo, after all, had warmed since Yoon became president in 2022. As the Japan Times observes, the future of otherwise very testy relations between Seoul and Tokyo now hinges on the outcome of elections to choose Yoon’s successor in June.
This diplomatic uncertainty will be particularly unwelcome, given that South Korea is still facing off against a hostile northern neighbour. The military fate of South Korea has long been closely bound up with North Korea, with which it is still formally at war. On this front, matters have been particularly strained lately. Just last week, South Korean foreign minister Cho Tae-yul pledged a $100million assistance package to Ukraine, with more on the way. Addressing a meeting of NATO foreign ministers, Cho slammed military cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Seoul would now seem beset on two fronts from the north. In this volatile context, the presence of 28,500 US troops on South Korean soil remains critical – and Trump will likely demand more cash to support them soon.
Militarily, South Korea is also strongly linked to Taiwan, Japan and even the Philippines. As such, any conflict in the East is bound to involve more than just the US and China. What happens in South Korea matters for the rest of the world. Though only a small country, events there can have massive implications economically and militarily across the globe. We would do well to pay more attention.
James Woudhuysen is visiting professor of forecasting and innovation at London South Bank University. He tweets at @jameswoudhuysen
