Pierre Poilievre closed the polling gap to just two points – but where will the ballots fall?
When this month began, Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney enjoyed a six-point lead on his Conservative challenger. But new polling as of Sunday shows Pierre Poilievre has narrowed that gap to just two points. Can he muster up enough support to oust the unelected PM who’s been leading Canada since Justin Trudeau’s resignation in January?
One might assume after nearly ten years of Trudeau trouble and the waning support for Liberals of late that it’s the Conservatives’ turn to rule the roost. But US President Donald Trump is a wildcard who often disrupts political norms – and with his tariffs and comments about turning Canada into the 51st state, today’s election seems as much about him as it is about the two candidates.
The Trump Effect
Conservative Pierre Poilievre has dedicated most of his stumping to drumming up dissatisfaction with the previous regime. That is, after all, how opposition parties often flip the majority – and according to last year’s polling, that’s exactly what seemed likely to happen.
Conservatives led the governing Liberals by 20 points in the national polls for months last year, and it seemed all but certain that Poilievre win the 2025 election. But things changed. Donald Trump was re-elected to a second non-consecutive term and started imposing tariffs and talking about making Canada the 51st state in the US and Liberal Justin Trudeau resigned.
In what the BBC called “a stunning reversal of fortunes,” Liberal Mark Carney, who took over as prime minister after the resignation, took the lead in the polls, as well. The election was called in March, and both parties were pretty much neck-and-neck. By April, the Liberals pulled ahead in national polling, a lead they enjoyed until right up to election day.
Carney has been portraying himself as the only one capable of dealing with Trump. Even Poilievre, who still focuses more on the damage done by Trudeau and the Liberal Party, has engaged in Trump talk, promising to reduce foreign aid and cut federal sales taxes on Canadian-made vehicles as long as the US tariffs remain in place.
Canada Up for Grabs
With the polling so tight by end of day Sunday – Carney leads Poilievre just 41%-39% – the race certainly seems competitive again. But yet another wrench ha been tossed into the gears, so to speak. The final day of campaigning is usually filled with rallies, speeches, and various eleventh-hour efforts to sway voters. But this year, campaigns were put on hold after a Vancouver man, Kai-Ji Adam Lo, allegedly rammed his SUV into a crowd at the Lapu Lapu Day festival in Vancouver.
Lo, a 30-year-old “known” to law enforcement with a history of mental health issues, was arrested and charged with murder for driving into the crowd, killing 11 and injuring 20. Prime Minister Carney canceled his morning events to address the nation Sunday and expressed his condolences to the families of those affected.
“Last night, families lost a sister, a brother, a mother, a father, a son or daughter,” he said. “Those families are living every family’s nightmare. I know that I join all Canadians in mourning with you. I know that Canadians are united.”
Conservative candidate Poilievre pivoted from his regularly scheduled campaign events, as well. “I know many of you are shocked, heartbroken, and saddened by this senseless act of violence and by the innocent lives that have been lost,” he said during an address at a church in Mississauga, Ontario. “All Canadians are united in solidarity with the Filipino community.”
Still, despite the chaos of the tragedy in Vancouver as well as the rhetoric and polices from the Trump White House – or, perhaps, in some ways because of it – Poilievre did manage to close that gap and come close to regaining his lead over Carney in the polls on Sunday. Will it be enough to put an end to what he calls the “Lost Liberal decade”?
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