American Political Thermometer: The Trump Polling Paradox

The polls and passions of the USA.

No single story is dominating news media more than President Donald Trump’s escalation – and then pause – of the tariff wars. With almost obsessive zeal, the left-leaning Fourth Estate has discovered its weapon of choice to wield against the GOP’s midterm efforts in 2026. But there are two issues ahead for this full-court press. The first is that many voters actually back the president’s goal (if not the exact play), and, more importantly, this is a trade war Trump could convincingly win.

Between Tariff Love and Madness

To say the legacy media has become committed to a narrative of destruction and disarray regarding Trump’s tariffs would be no understatement. A week has passed since the president’s Liberation Day event in the Rose Garden, and outlets are doubling down on every detail except the one that matters. Here’s a brief breakdown of (above-the-fold digital) coverage from Wednesday, April 9:

• The New York Times – 14 out of 18 stories directly related to tariffs (77.7%)
• The Washington Post – 6 out of 13 stories above the fold (with 15 total on the whole front page) about tariffs (46.1%)
• CNN – 9 out of 17 articles focused on the cause du jour (52.9%)
• MSNBC – 8 out of 13 articles were dedicated to the tariff war (61.5%)

When almost 60% of the overall coverage is devoted to a singular topic more than a week after the main event, one has to consider whether the media efforts are focused on reporting news or sculpting opinions. Since Jan. 20, people have been force-fed narrative after narrative on a series of alleged scandals that had the potential to precipitate the downfall of Trump’s second term.

But is the public buying it?

Bad News for Trump?

A recent YouGov poll asked whether raising tariffs would “help or hurt the average American.” A hefty 57% said it would “hurt” against just 19% who said it would “help.” And this sentiment is echoed across other surveys. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that “less than half of Americans support 25% tariffs on all cars and trucks made outside the U.S. or tariffs of at least 10% on all of the U.S.’ trading partners.”

Damning stuff – until one digs a little deeper.

The Ipsos survey also finds that more than half of all Americans (52%) think “other countries have been taking advantage of the U.S. when it comes to international trade.” Roughly half of all those surveyed felt “short-term economic pain is worth it to make the U.S. stronger in the long term” – this includes 81% of Republicans and half of independent voters. Even 29% of Democrats agreed.

Then there is the latest Rasmussen Reports poll that found 49% of voters say the government doesn’t do enough to protect American businesses, while just 17% say it does too much. This same survey asked voters whether they agreed with Vice President JD Vance’s recent comment:

“If we do not protect our nation’s manufacturers, we lose a fundamental part of who we are as a people. Making things, building things, working with our hands is America’s heritage.”

According to Rasmussen, “Seventy-three percent (73%) of voters agree with that quote, including 41% who Strongly Agree. Only 21% disagree.”

As we can see, Americans are divided evenly on whether they support Trump’s tariff efforts, yet poll after poll shows they want something done about the unfair trade relationship other countries have with the United States. Could it be that while they support leveling the playing field, the media push to denigrate Trump’s efforts is having a narrative-driven impact?

We’ll find out when the next supposed scandal breaks and the media’s attention shifts elsewhere.

Polls and Policy Highlights

Beyond popularity for individuals and parties, a range of policy-based polls emerged last week. Here are a couple of the more interesting results:

Left-of-center respondents who say the murder of President Trump could be either partially or completely justified – 55.2% (Rutgers/NCRI)

Support for the position that Donald Trump is “very responsible” for the stock market – 41% (YouGov)

And finally, it seems the betting markets are gearing up for 2028 already. The current favorites for the next POTUS are:

• Vice President JD Vance – 7/2 or a 22.2% probability.
• Gavin Newsom (D-CA) – 10/1 or a 9.1% probability.
• Pete Buttigieg – 10/1 or a 9.1% probability.
• Josh Shapiro (D-PA) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability.
• Donald Trump Jr. – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability.
• Stephen A. Smith – 40/1 or a 2.4% probability.

We are still years away from the election, so much can – and will – change, but tracking the momentum of the betting markets rarely proves a futile move.