American Political Thermometer: Democrat Division

The polls and passions of the USA.

“When you know what you stand for, you know what to fight for.” These words from Kamala Harris in 2023 show that she understood the problem political activists faced yet failed to comprehend how well it applied to her party. The latest polls strongly suggest that the Democratic Party is deeply divided over its forward direction and that the light at the end of the tunnel could be a fast-approaching train.

What the Polls Say

A fascinating survey courtesy of Rasmussen Reports finds that a clear majority, 59%, think the “Democratic Party needs to be more moderate.” This figure includes a staggering 49% of Democratic voters. Meanwhile, Republicans felt the opposing party was too extreme (72%), and half of the other side’s likely voters believed their party had gone too far, which should be a wake-up call.

Indeed, just 29% say the Democratic Party “needs to be more liberal,” leaving leading voices in a bit of a conundrum. After all, who is making all the noise on the national stage right now? We see Vermont’s Fortunate Son, Sen. Bernie Sanders, hand in hand with New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on their “Oligarchy Tour,” garnering splashy headlines. And who can avoid Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz trying to explain to all who will listen that he is, in fact, rather masculine – if only you look closely?

This trio has it in their collective (and collectivist) head that America is ready for a progressive resurgence. And while few other voices are making a pitch for the heart and soul of the party, they might even have an opportunity to lock down the progressive vote. But here’s the unspoken secret: The progressive vote wasn’t going anywhere.

Conversely, we see House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries taking to the airwaves to echo Ragin’ Cajun James Carville and declare that the nation does not stand with Trump or Republicans. Jeffries was wrong about the two recent special elections in Florida, and his words are poorly reflected against President Donald Trump’s record-high approval rating. As Napolitan News Service recently highlighted, the president’s “job approval rating is at 52%. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters disapprove.”

And the Issues?

It’s not just on party direction that Democratic voters seem hopelessly divided. Another Napolitan survey dove into whether voters are gung-ho for Trump’s energy agenda. The poll found: “Most voters (57%) say making America energy independent is more important than fighting climate change. Thirty-nine percent (39%) take the opposite view.” Notably, considering this is an issue that the Democratic Party has wielded as a moral cudgel for the last eight years, 65% of its voters put climate as a higher priority, but 35% didn’t.

And then there is the issue of mass deportations, a topic that is – at least by the legacy media – considered a Republican issue. A CBSNews/YouGov poll suggests that a majority (53%) approve of Trump’s handling of immigration. Digging deeper, the survey says 58% approve of deporting those in the country illegally.

Pew Research Center has some notable numbers in its latest poll on the topic. Just over 30% say “all” illegal immigrants should be deported, and 51% say some should be deported. Yet 16% say that none should be removed. Of those that said “some,” a whopping 95% said those who commit violent crimes should go. This is a real 80/20 issue that Democrats seem unable to get on the right side of.

Polls and Policy Highlights

Beyond popularity for individuals and parties, a range of policy-based polls have been released in the last week. Here are a couple of the more interesting results from the same poll:

• 82% believe presidents should obey court rulings.  (Reuters/Ipsos)
• 76% of Republicans support Trump’s deportation efforts despite court order. (Reuters/Ipsos)

And finally, it seems the betting markets are gearing up for 2028 already. The current favorites for the next POTUS are:

• Vice President JD Vance – 11/4 or a 26.7% probability
• Gavin Newsom (D-CA) – 10/1 or a 9.1% probability
• Josh Shapiro (D-PA) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability
• Pete Buttigieg – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability
• Donald Trump Jr. – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability

We are still years away from the presidential election, so much can – and will – change, but tracking the momentum of the betting markets rarely proves a futile move.