Trump’s Declining Approval: Worrisome or Illusory?

This high-risk, high-reward presidency is being severely tested.

For many reasons, it seemed inevitable that Donald Trump would not be able to sustain his highest-ever public approval for months on end. And, sure enough, the popularity of this precedent-setting 47th president has tumbled of late. Shortly after his inauguration 100 days ago, Trump’s average approval in polling came in at over 50%, with disapproval at 44%, according to RealClear Politics (RCP). Those numbers have now essentially been reversed, with 45% approving and 52% disapproving of his performance as president. The left is delighting in their assertion that this represents the most rapid fall from grace of any new (or in this case, semi-new) president in decades.

So, what to make of this development? Is his falling approval worrisome or illusory? Is Trump likely to rebound, or plunge further downward? Well, the first thing to consider is that this president is neither a caretaker nor establishment politician like Joe Biden. He does not accept the inevitable persistence of the status quo. He has taken upon himself the mighty burden of altering the course of history in so many realms left untouched by his many predecessors.

Trump’s Whirlwind Stirs the Hornets’ Nests

In the space of 100 days, Trump has completely re-shaped the nation’s immigration system, sealing off the southern border while swiftly and unapologetically rounding up and deporting 150,000 illegal aliens and designating criminal gangs as domestic terrorists. He has spurred massive shrinkage in the federal government by laying off or firing some 120,000 federal employees while entire agencies are reorganized and billions of dollars of waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal budget are unmasked by DOGE. He has driven a stake through the heart of entrenched DEI and transgender ideology. He has stepped into the middle of the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflict and delivered a de facto ultimatum to Iran.

If we consider the number of hornet’s nests Trump has stirred up, we should hardly be surprised that his inaugural afterglow has faded. He has broken countless eggs in creating the big, beautiful omelet he envisions, otherwise known as America’s next golden age. But it is one policy in particular that accounts for his current dip in the polls: tariffs. It is a truism that markets can deal with bulls and bears, streaks and slumps, optimism and pessimism, but the thing that worries them more than anything else is uncertainty. The same goes for consumers, and a general sense of unease surrounds the whirlwind of tariff news emanating from the White House day after day.  A recent survey by Quinnipiac reveals that over 72% of respondents believe the president’s tariff regime will hurt the economy in the short term, while 53% have the same concern in the long term. In fact, a majority of Americans believe there will be a recession in the next year. This issue by itself is driving down Trump’s popularity.

The president has made clear – though perhaps not clear enough – that the fruits of his labor in this drastic shift in how America does business with the world will take time. Tariffs designed to even a playing field in which the US has long played the fool will not and cannot produce immediate or even short-term positive results. But in employing his ultimate leverage, access to the universally coveted American consumer market, Trump is engaging in the art of the deal, keeping our trading partners off balance, confident in his legendary ability to negotiate agreements superior to the many one-sided deals now in place. Nevertheless, the lack of clarity about where things will land when the considerable dust of tariffs finally settles is undoubtedly making people nervous about a post-pandemic economy already fraught with uncertainty.

Trump Alone

Having already broken the presidential mold in his first term, why has the 45th-turned-47th president doubled or tripled down this time around? The answer lies in term limits. Emboldened by winning a majority of the popular vote and knowing he has only four years to cement his game-changing America First agenda, he will not be up for re-election and thus can throw caution to the wind and not concern himself with ongoing political consequences. After being savaged in his two previous bids for the White House and victimized by concocted scandals and a pandemic during his previous four years in office, Trump hardly needed to put himself through the election wringer again. He had long ago achieved enviable fame and fortune before even reaching the very top rung on the ladder at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.  The only explanation for putting himself through this one more time is that he believes he alone can produce the degree of necessary systemic change he has advocated for decades.

At the same time, there is one distinct note of caution for a president taking big risks to fix big problems. if he continues his descent in the polls, he is in danger of one consequence in particular. When he regained power, Trump had the GOP-controlled House and Senate largely eating out of his hand. But unlike the president, these Republican members of Congress must consider their own political futures, and thus are liable to start distancing themselves from the chief executive if his approval continues to sink.

A Historical Parallel to Ronald Reagan

When he first assumed the presidency in 1981, Ronald Reagan made his mark by championing the controversial theory known as supply-side economics, derisively called “trickle-down economics” by his opponents. His remedy for a stagflation-plagued economy was tax cuts, deregulation, and free trade designed to stimulate production and investment. For well over a year, the results were dismal. Reagan eventually reached a tipping point when he had to decide whether to abandon his controversial plan or stick with it in the face of potentially dire circumstances. He stayed the course, and the economy eventually soared, leading to his overwhelming re-election famously framed by the slogan “It’s Morning Again in America.”

Knowing the economy is the one issue that can make or break presidents, will Trump follow Reagan’s lead and hold tight to his tariff-driven restructuring of the world economy, even if it comes at the cost of short-term pain in return for the hope of long-term gain? This is perhaps the most abiding question surrounding Trump’s remaining 45 months in office. The worrywarts were in open panic when he hit China with stiff tariffs during his first term, but the policy was ultimately so successful that even Joe Biden knew better than to get rid of it, as he did with almost every other Trump initiative. Like Reagan, Donald Trump is unafraid to challenge the existing order, and he will have to continue doing exactly that in order to deliver the golden age he has promised.