American Political Thermometer: Is the United States MAGA Country?

The polls and passions of the USA.

Since the 2024 election, a coordinated refrain from leading Democrats – despite President Donald Trump’s return to the White House – has been that the public no longer supports his “extreme” agenda. It’s a bold claim and, if focusing on a small percentage of policy issues, could be technically correct. However, when taken as a whole, it seems the country is getting redder and redder. More notable is that a significant chunk of these GOP supporters considers themselves MAGA-minded.

What the Polls Say

An NBC survey released this month found “thirty-six percent of registered voters identified themselves as MAGA supporters.” That’s not just Republicans – 71% of whom claim that appellation – but voters from all three parties, even independents, who generally shun the other two. It’s a stark increase from January 2024, when this figure was just 20%.

Looking wider, there is a general turn toward the GOP that seems to be solidifying around Trump’s second term. Napolitan News Service released a poll last week that showed “in March, 46% of voters considered themselves Republicans or leaned Republican, while 41% considered themselves Democrats or leaned Democrat.” That’s a five-point difference, which has become more fixed since Trump returned to the White House.

These findings fall perfectly in line with polling by Gallup, which found:

“Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991.”

Support for the Democratic Party is on the slide after 30 years of inbuilt advantage. So, with more people identifying as Republicans and more Republicans identifying as MAGA supporters, it seems that the United States really is on its way to becoming a MAGA country.

Looking to the MAGA Future

Conventional wisdom has long held that the youth vote for the left, as they age and become more experienced, gradually shift to the right. However, another survey – this one by the Yale Youth Poll – suggests a wild backlash against the woke left. Of the elder cohort (22 to 29), the Yale poll found support for the Democratic Party was just six points ahead of GOP support. It’s a win for the left, certainly, yet not a seismic one. Then comes the 18-to-21 cohort.

This group opted for Republicans by an enormous 12-point margin, suggesting there is a visceral – almost reactive – swing away from the traditional position. In fact, while Vice President JD Vance is popular with these right-leaning youngsters, the survey discovered if Trump were in a hypothetical third-term primary, “the incumbent president dominates” with 56% support.

Polls and Policy Highlights

A range of policy-based polls were published last week, going beyond popularity for individuals and parties. Here are some of the more interesting results from those:

• 64% believe people should have to prove they are citizens before registering to vote, with 26% against.  (Rasmussen Reports)
• 61% of Americans think a recession will occur within the next year, compared to 24% who believe the economic outlook is positive. (Ipsos)

Lastly, it seems the betting markets are gearing up for 2028 already. The current favorites for the next POTUS are:

• Vice President JD Vance – 11/4 or a 26.7% probability.
• Gavin Newsom (D-CA) – 10/1 or a 9.1% probability.
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability.
• Josh Shapiro (D-PA) – 11/1 or an 8.3% probability.
• Pete Buttigieg – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability.
• Donald Trump Jr. – 12/1 or a 7.7% probability.
• Stephen A. Smith – 40/1 or a 2.1% probability.

We are still years away from the presidential election, so much can – and will – change, but tracking the momentum of the betting markets rarely proves a futile move.