The Republican Party increased its House majority after two special elections yesterday, April 1, in what was widely billed as a proxy war against the Trump administration. Overshadowing this duo of handy wins was a loss in the race to replace a liberal judge in the Wisconsin Supreme Court. As expected, both sides are claiming a fresh mandate. But who really came out on top?
Florida Election Hype vs Reality
The Sunshine State’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts were up for grabs due to former Representative Matt Gaetz leaving for an ill-fated run as US attorney general and Mike Waltz being picked as President Trump’s national security advisor. These men both won their respective seats in 2024 by 32%.
With such huge margins, discussions of a potential flip should have been null and void. However, major spending by Democratic candidates combined with close polling created an aura of uncertainty. But then reality bit hard.
Standing for Florida’s First District, Republican Jimmy Patronis bested Democrat Gay Valimont by 14 points: 56.9% to 42.3%. In the Sixth, GOP candidate Randy Fine took on Democrat Josh Weil and also won by 14 points (56.7% to 42.7%). Two conclusive results that expand the GOP House margin to 220 against 213. But was there ever any doubt that these deep red seats would flip?
Polling in advance of Tuesday’s contest suggested the races would be close calls, with a St. Pete Polls survey showing Fine with just a four-point advantage. For Democrats, this was messaging gold, which House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spent freely. The New York Democrat said in advance of the special elections:
“These are races that should not under ordinary circumstances be on anyone’s political radar. They are safe Republican seats that Donald Trump won by more than 30 points. … The American people are not buying what the Republicans are selling. That is why they are on the run.”
This has been a near-constant refrain from the minority party: America is rejecting Trump. But the actual polling suggests otherwise. In fact, President Trump is enjoying his highest-ever approval rating, and congressional Republicans are outperforming Democrat favorability by a whopping margin. And as CNN’s Harry Enten recently observed, “The bottom line is, the percentage of Americans who say we’re on the right track is through the roof.” He elaborated:
“All we talk about is how unpopular Donald Trump is … But in reality, he’s basically more popular than he was at any point in term number one and more popular than he was when he won the election back in November of 2024.”
And this Trump-driven popularity is key to understanding the narrative in Florida. Trump was not on the ballot. Democrats tried to paint that as being the case in order to obscure his rising popularity. As with most special elections, they are driven by turnout, especially when there is not a presidential candidate on the ballot. Each candidate had to stand by themselves.
Florida-based Republican strategist Ford O’Connell warned earlier this week that Democrats would attempt to spin anything less than a blowout. Referring to Randy Fine, he said, “If he wins by 10, then there’s no narrative.” And while 14 points is a smaller margin than the 32% win of November 2024, Mr. Fine had no coattails on which to be dragged. That did not stop Rep. Jeffries from trying, though.
A Narrative Swing and Miss
“It was an incredible over performance by the two Democratic candidates into two ruby red districts,” Jeffries crowed to MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell. The bravado increased:
“What we’re seeing, of course, is something that we’ve seen all across the country since the early special elections that began in late January. And that is democratic energy and over performance coupled with independent swing voters and even moderate Republicans breaking for the Democratic candidate and rejecting the extremism, the outrageous behavior.”
But doth the Minority Leader protest too much? Let’s consider this “over performance” of which Mr. Jeffries speaks.
In 2024, 415,000 votes were cast in the November 2024 1st District race. Democratic contender Gay Valimont (in her first attempt at the seat) racked up a respectable 140,000. In yesterday’s election, she earned just 72,000. Where is that momentum, Hakeem? To try to spin this as Democrats making gains is a wild stretch of the imagination. But it was not entirely a bad day for Democrats nationally.
Worry from Wisconsin
When one thinks of nationally important elections, the House, Senate, and presidency usually spring to mind. And yet, a race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s vacant seat has gained distinct notoriety.
Judge Susan Crawford won the election with a comfortable ten-point margin (55% to 45%) over Brad Schimel, ensuring that liberals keep their 4-3 majority. While judges on this court are supposed to be “non-partisan,” the reality is somewhat different. More than $90 million was spent on the contest, making it the most expensive judicial race in US history. But why?
There is a Democratic-led effort to redistrict two reliably red US House seats and replace them with districts far more promising to blue voters. As Liberty Nation News’ Jim Fite explained:
“The source of all the national attention – and the political intrigue – is a strategic briefing held in January, during which a plan was revealed. … But this one, specifically, was held by Democratic Party donors and was advertised in the invitation emails as a ‘chance to put two more House seats in play for 2026.’
“The plan discussed during the call – which was attended by Susan Crawford – is that if she wins, the Wisconsin Supreme Court shortly thereafter would force new congressional maps to be drawn. The targets of these redistricting efforts would be Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden, both Republicans.”
Indeed, critics have accused Judge Crawford of essentially “interviewing” for the position by indicating that she was onboard with deleting two safe GOP seats in Wisconsin. While she did not say she would do so, she introduced herself to the group attendees at an event billed for just that purpose.
It is no secret that this is the plan, which is why so much cash was spent on a contest that would otherwise have gathered little national attention. Wisconsin Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said of the result that it was a “shot heard ’round the world.”
Two in the Hand?
While the loss in Wisconsin for the GOP is undoubtedly a blow, the potential redistricting plot is a problem for the future and could ultimately be challenged in a higher court. Having two new House seats to help usher through legislation between now and the 2026 midterms provides not only breathing room for what was a razor-thin majority but also demonstrates that Republicans can pull votes even when Trump is not on the ticket. And that might be the most valuable lesson of all.
