How close is the end of fighting?
Despite significant speed bumps, President Donald Trump has been steadfast in developing a path to peace in Ukraine. As talks progressed, Russian President Vladimir Putin was the holdout, however, it now appears that he is ready for serious discussions on a ceasefire in Ukraine and steps toward lasting peace. The sticking point is security guarantees – for both sides. Ukraine wants assurances that Europe and the United States will backstop its safety. Russia demands that Ukraine will not be in NATO, nor will European or US troops be stationed in Ukraine. Today, March 18, the leaders will connect by phone.
The Path Not Taken
Europe is not in a position to influence the talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States. “No one country in Europe has the financial and industrial resources to replace the United States, but together they can add up to formidable support to Ukraine,” Foreign Affairs observed. However, that combination has not proved fruitful to date. For the past three years, Europe has provided financial and military aid in amounts barely sufficient to keep the Ukrainians in the fight. There has been little evidence of a building coalition of European nations to provide Ukraine with the level of war materiel needed to significantly alter the course of the conflict.
The recent pause in US military and intelligence support should have put Europe on notice that relying on President Joe Biden’s “as long as it takes” assistance is short-sighted. Trump has been remarkably transparent regarding his intentions. As Reuters explained:
“Trump is trying to win Putin’s support for a 30-day ceasefire proposal that Ukraine accepted last week, as both sides continued trading heavy aerial strikes through the weekend and Russia moved closer to ejecting Ukrainian forces from their months-old foothold in the western Russian region of Kursk. But Ukraine’s acceptance of a proposed ceasefire has put the onus on Russia to cede to Trump’s demands and will test the US president’s more positive view of Putin, who launched Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three years ago.”
During his phone conversation with the Russian leader, Trump will have the opportunity to bring resolution to the details on the table. A recent Guardian Observer editorial stated, “The initial 30-day truce under discussion by US and Russian officials reportedly entails a complete halt to fighting and temporary freezing of the frontlines in eastern Ukraine.” Other issues important to Kyiv are procedures for prisoner exchanges and the return of civilians detained by Russia during its invasion, particularly the repatriation of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Moscow’s troops.
Putin Skeptics
It is not likely that Trump will get bogged down in Putin’s insistence on addressing Ukraine’s sovereignty and what that looks like going forward. The Russian leader has emphasized that a ceasefire must be accompanied by a way forward to a lasting peace, which cannot allow Ukraine to become heavily armed or a part of NATO. Some in Europe are skeptical that Trump’s outreach will bear fruit. A press release from the UK government warned, “If Russia finally comes to the table, then we must be ready to monitor a ceasefire to ensure it is a serious and enduring peace; if they don’t, then we need to strain every sinew to ramp up economic pressure on Russia to secure an end to this war.”
Trump has shown convincingly that he’ll walk away if negotiations aren’t to his liking. Yes, Putin has been a recalcitrant global leader. Yes, Putin has shown he cannot be trusted. And, yes, he may stall for time. However, Trump knows this and holds some cards of his own. The full weight of banking sanctions has not yet fallen on Russia.
As the Institute for the Study of War reported, “Russia will likely face several materiel, manpower, and economic constraints in the coming months that will put pressure on the Kremlin’s ability to maintain its war effort in Ukraine in the medium- to long-term — if Russian forces’ loss rates in Ukraine continue at the current tempo.” Today’s phone conversation will reveal if there is hope for ending the horror that is taking place in Ukraine. If so, there is probably no better mediator to cut a bargain. If not, there is no more likely adversary to make the price too high for Putin.
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