As has been ubiquitously noted, the party of former President Joe Biden is currently lacking a leader. And with good reason, it appears that few are willing to take the mantle of power over a congressional caucus that has yet to redefine itself in the wake of Kamala Harris’ historic 2024 loss. Who, after all, wants to be the captain of the divided Democrat team that can’t even agree what game they are playing, let alone who should be in which position. But the gameplay is very different for potential 2028 presidential contenders who may see themselves as cutting a Trumpian swath through party politics to grab the ultimate brass ring.
Enter the three contenders quietly vying for the public recognition that could catapult them to the top spot when the time comes to declare.
California Governor Gavin Newsom
Pros: As the governor of the most populated state in the union and leader of the fifth-largest economy in the world, Gavin Newsom can rightly claim to be prepared to step up to the next rung on the ladder. He has name recognition second to none in the Democrat (and Republican) sphere and is heralded as a smooth operator.
As well as being on the front edge of the progressive movement, as evidenced by his allowing same sex marriage well before the rest of his party was on board, he is currently engaged in building a brand outside of DNC environs. His new podcast, This is Gavin Newsom, aims to provide conversations with “the other side.” It’s a direct response to Kamala’s failed campaign, which sought succour only from left-leaning media comrades.
Cons: Too slick for his own good is the general consensus. And while he has the political chops, there remains the question of whether the northeast of America really wants the Golden State agenda in its more “cerebral” environs. New York has Broadway and California has Hollywood, and this theater versus movie divide might be too much for Empire staters. And then, of course, come the nuts and bolts of his policy agenda.
As Just the News reports, “California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Medi-Cal system is seeking a $3.4 billion taxpayer bailout after spending $9.5 billion this year on noncitizen immigrant health care.” So despite being a massive economy, the embrace of illegal immigration has sunk it deep into the red. With public approval for Trump’s mass deportations riding high, this could be a red flag to many voters.
The first guest on his podcast was conservative organizer Charlie Kirk – a man who has made his reputation through dialogue and debate in the very places where Newsom’s message might most highly resonate: US college campuses. Writing for Fox News, Kirk gave his unvarnished opinion on the governor’s gameplan. Referencing the moment when he challenged him on Proposition 16 (a measure supported by Newsom to legalize racial discrimination), Newsom affected to imply he could not remember the specific details. Kirk wrote:
“Gavin didn’t need any notes: What he was doing was a stall tactic. Before he ties himself down on that issue, he wants to see where the winds blow the next few years.
“They say that Wayne Gretzky was the greatest hockey player ever because, rather than going where the puck was, he could anticipate where the puck would be in the future and went there.”
“Do I think the man who was so far out front on gay marriage is suddenly really a moderate on women’s sports? Not even close. But he can see the polls. He’s moving to where the puck will be in four years,” Mr. Kirk concluded.
And it is precisely this type of “all things to all men” attitude that has tarnished Governor Newsom’s reputation in much of the country.
Former Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg
Pros: The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, has good name recognition and is widely viewed as a calm voice within the party by his fans. He was given the job of transport secretary under Joe Biden, and he pretty much kept his head down throughout those four years. Buttigieg has wide appeal among those who favor diversifying the party based on race or sexuality, and he has shown himself to be an effective advocate for his former boss.
The clearest signal that he intends to run for the White House in 2028 came last Thursday (March 13) when he officially announced that he would not be seeking the Michigan Senate seat in 2026. He wrote on his X account:
“I care deeply about who Michigan will elect as Governor and send to the U.S. Senate next year, but I have decided against competing in either race.
“I remain enthusiastic about helping candidates who share our values – and who understand that in this moment, leadership means not only opposing today’s cruel chaos, but also presenting a vision of a better alternative.”
Buttigieg continued, writing that he remains “intensely focused on consolidating, communicating, and supporting a vision for this alternative.” That’s a pretty clear signal that he intends to move beyond state-level politics.
Cons: The biggest hurdles Mr. Buttigieg will face are those pertaining to his actual record. Many may remember the $1 billion funding initiative to make roads less “racist.” Without delving in to why such a proposition was so unambiguously flawed in the first place, the cash was doled out to projects via the Reconnecting Communities Program and, for the most part, ended up focusing on building cycle paths.
As the Transportation for America Blog notes, “projects that add safety features for people walking and biking around large, dangerous roadways are improvements overall, but they won’t go far enough to truly address divisive infrastructure. These projects would likely be a better fit for larger, more flexible funding sources than a small, specific program like the Reconnecting Communities Program.”
And then there was the $7.5 billion boondoggle to create a network of new electric vehicle charging stations. It was widely reported that a grand total of just eight stations were installed over several years and with a significant chunk of the cash spent. Naturally, the more left-leaning media has been quick to pooh-pooh such notions, but the facts remain generally true.
Reuters factcheck on the topic calls it “misleading” and highlights that not all the taxpayer dollars have actually been spent. Still, even a couple of billion dollars for eight chargers might seem high to much of the electorate. And although the project is scheduled to run through 2030, when it comes to facing the public, Mr. Buttigieg does not really have any concrete wins to which he can direct the voters.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz
Pros: The former vice-presidential contender (Kamala’s wingman) is currently riding high on the name-recognition bandwagon. Many folks still have the T-shirts, and Tim Walz become a perennial talking point in the Fourth Estate as “what we could have had” when set as a comparison to VP JD Vance. Unlike Ms. Harris, Walz did not saunter off into the sunset after the November loss, and has, instead, set out a plan to use his “influence” to help bring his party back to order.
He announced that he will be crisscrossing the country to stump with a number of Democratic Party representatives – many of whom had nailbiter wins in the most recent election. He told CNN:
“There was just a primal scream of folks recognizing what’s going on with the Trump administration, their authoritarian tendencies, and what they viewed was a lack of a proper response from their representatives.
“It was about these Republican representatives recognizing this stuff’s really unpopular, so they’re going to quit the town halls. These folks need to be heard. They need to be heard, and to be candid with you, Democratic leadership needs to hear them.”
And he seems to think that he’s the man to do it. Indeed, as no other party leaders appear willing to hit the nascent trail, he might be right. “I’m a catalyst to provide them a megaphone to lift up their voice. And I think that’s what people are looking for,” he said. “I understand now my responsibility. I have a little more of a national voice, so I should bring it to them, and I’m going to basically be handing the megaphone to them.”
Cons: The very thing that makes him a semi-viable contender is also the thing most likely to sink his aspirations. He is a failed national candidate. Before he was chosen to be VP Harris’ running mate, few people outside Minnesota had ever heard the name “Tim Walz.” In fact, his selection to the top ticket was widely regarded as bizarre by even the faithful media.
Despite efforts reinvent him as the epitome of “masculinity,” his oddball persona and numerous biographical embellishments made him electoral poison. Quite how much juice he can bring to struggling Democrats in swing states remains to be seen, but if past is prologue, such appearances could do more harm than good.
The Elusive Fourth Horseman
Each of the above potential contenders want to bring energy to a party that has – as yet – failed to reset itself after an election that saw it lose the presidency and the Senate and fail to recapture the House. It seems likely that, in the wake of Donald Trump’s historic comeback, voters are looking for someone who is not necessarily part of the in-crowd so much as someone who is not tainted by the recent failure. And that leaves room for an insurgent.
Former VP Kamala Harris does not fit that particular bill and may be unwilling to get back in the race now that it has become clear her campaign team knew she was never really in with a shot in the first place. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro’s name has been whispered, as has Arizona Senator Mark Kelley’s. But there is a lesson from 2015 that could point to the ultimate direction.
Bruised and battered after Barack Obama’s two terms in office, the Republican Party went on to field a slate of candidates that were, essentially, a continuation of the status quo. And then Donald Trump entered the field and turned American politics on its head. As the consummate outsider, he attacked the contenders, the party, and the very ethos of the GOP. The voting base was reinvigorated to such a degree that his tallies went up in every subsequent election. In essence, he remade the party in the spirit of America First. Without a candidate that can bring a similar rejuvenation to the Democrat fold, the party faces a future of uncertainty and potential demise.
